Pulse of the Market
The fog surrounding the Iran war is particularly thick for forecasting. US public companies are in the early days of understanding the war's ripple effects, with many noting they haven't seen direct impacts yet. As 1Q26 reporting season approaches, the US equity market is entering an important discovery phase for understanding how the war will ultimately impact the US economy and company profitability. Uncertainty in forecasting is unusually high and will likely remain so for an extended period. With a messy ceasefire in place, the outlook for US equities moving forward should stay focused on numbers rather than narrative.
The fog surrounding the Iran war is particularly thick for forecasting. US public companies are in the early days of understanding the war's ripple effects, with many noting they haven't seen direct impacts yet. As 1Q26 reporting season approaches, the US equity market is entering an important discovery phase for understanding how the war will ultimately impact the US economy and company profitability. Uncertainty in forecasting is unusually high and will likely remain so for an extended period. With a messy ceasefire in place, the outlook for US equities moving forward should stay focused on numbers rather than narrative.
The Vicic Wealth Management Team
April 9, 2026