April 2026

Market Update

April was a month defined by a rapidly shifting geopolitical backdrop. The U.S.-Iran conflict, which has been the dominant force shaping markets since late February, continued to drive significant volatility — particularly in energy prices and equity markets. A two-week ceasefire was announced on April 7, sending stocks sharply higher and oil prices lower, as optimism around a lasting peace grew. However, negotiations did not produce a finalized agreement, and the pendulum swung back toward tension, with the U.S. imposing its own blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Iran to threaten attacks on non-Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf — and sending oil prices rebounding. rbcgamrbcgam

Despite this turbulence, the broader market picture showed notable resilience. Corporate earnings forecasts were actually upgraded during this period, and when combined with the pullback in stocks, this improved the return potential for equities going forward. The base case from RBC GAM remains constructive: a mid-single digit return for the S&P 500 through the end of 2027, in an environment where the economy continues to grow, inflation pressures prove temporary, and corporate profits rise at a meaningful pace — driven in part by higher oil prices, but mostly by continued strength in the technology sector. rbcgamrbcgam

On the technology front, AI remained a powerful force. Nvidia climbed to a record, surpassing a $5 trillion valuation, and the Nasdaq rose approximately 15% in April — on pace for its best month since April 2020. That said, the war introduced new complications for the sector, as Iranian attacks damaged a liquified natural gas facility in Qatar that produces helium — a critical input for chip manufacturing — and supply chain pressures on memory and semiconductors intensified throughout the month. CNBCCNBC

Geographically, the disruption to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz continued to affect different regions unevenly. Asian and European economies remain more exposed to the energy shock than North American ones. Meanwhile, non-U.S. equity markets, which had outperformed meaningfully in the first two months of the year, gave back some ground but many still remain ahead of U.S. markets on a year-to-date basis. rbcgamRBC Global Asset Management

What this means: April was a reminder that geopolitical events can move markets quickly and in both directions. The underlying economic story — solid earnings, continued AI investment, and a gradually adapting global economy — remains intact. But the path forward is less predictable than it was at the start of the year, and that unpredictability is precisely why a well-diversified, long-term oriented portfolio matters most in moments like these.

April Considerations

As we move into May, the pace of the year picks up and a few timely financial questions are worth sitting with:

• Now that tax season is behind me, do I have a clear picture of my overall result — and a plan for what comes next, whether that's a refund to deploy or a balance owing to prepare for next year?
• With markets having experienced meaningful volatility this spring, has my portfolio stayed aligned with my risk tolerance and long-term goals, or has drift created an opportunity to rebalance?
• Have I reviewed my exposure to energy price movements and geopolitical risk, and considered whether my level of diversification — across asset classes and geographies — still reflects where I want to be?
• Are there TFSA or RRSP contribution room opportunities I haven't yet used that could strengthen my position heading into the second half of the year?
• As we approach the midpoint of 2026, am I on track with the financial intentions I set at the start of the year — and if not, what's one adjustment I can make now?
• Have I had a conversation with my advisor recently to make sure my plan reflects current market conditions and any changes in my personal situation?

May is a natural reset point — a chance to move from the reactive mode that markets can sometimes force upon us, and back into a proactive, planning-oriented mindset. Small, intentional steps taken now can make a meaningful difference by year-end.

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A Final Note

Navigating moments like these is easier when you don't have to do it alone. The headlines this month have been louder than usual — geopolitical tension, energy market swings, rapid moves in technology — and it's completely natural to wonder what it all means for your own financial picture.

What we know is this: the clients who tend to feel most grounded during uncertain periods are the ones with a plan they understand and trust. If something in this update sparked a question, or if your life has shifted in a way your plan hasn't yet reflected, we're here for that conversation. Reach out anytime — that's what we're here for.

Chantal

Chantal McNeily, CIM, BACS | Investment and Wealth Advisor, RBC Wealth Management | RBC Dominion Securities | T. 705-734-4409 | C. 705-794-5197 | 11 Victoria St., Suite 100, Barrie ON, L4N 6T2 | www.chantalmcneily.com