Markets are entering the summer with two familiar themes in focus: geopolitics and trade policy.  These two factors continue to dominate headlines and influence inflation, economic growth, corporate earnings, and investor sentiment.

In this economic update, we discuss the progress toward a U.S.-Iran agreement, then turn to Canada’s economic outlook and the upcoming review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) on trade.

We are also sharing the most recent episode of #MacroMemo, where RBC Chief Economist and Head of Investment Strategy Research unpacks the impacts of the U.S.-Iran deal and if it doesn't follow through, AI productivity on the rise, and the economic resilience of the U.S. and Canadian markets.

Lastly, a quick reminder that our summer office hours are currently in effect. Our offices will be closed at 4:00pm each Friday between now and September 4th. Thank you!

Economic Update

Geopolitics: A Deal At Last?

Reports that the U.S. and Iran have signed a memorandum of understanding to reopen the Strait of Hormuz marks a constructive step toward reducing tensions. If successfully implemented, such an agreement would materially reduce the probability of the most adverse economic scenarios, particularly those involving a renewed surge in oil prices. Financial markets have reacted positively to the news: equity markets rallied, bond yields declined, and oil prices retreated.

Nevertheless, key questions remain:  what is the deal’s scope, durability, and enforcement mechanisms? What ‘side deals’ may exist?  How does the still active conflict in Lebanon or the President’s social media outbursts affect the deal’s prospects?  Developments in the coming weeks will be important to monitor as markets search for evidence of follow-through. Most significantly, the road from announcement to normalization is likely to be a long one for the energy market.

Shipping traffic through the Strait and energy production across the Middle East will require considerable time to recover from recent disruptions due to complex logistical hurdles, while depleted global oil inventories will need rebuilding before markets regain a more comfortable cushion against future shocks. These factors could leave energy markets sensitive to renewed tensions during the transition period. As a result, oil prices are likely to retain some geopolitical risk premium and may not return to the pre-conflict range of $60–70 per barrel in the near term, suggesting that the effects on the outlook for inflation and interest rates could linger even as the downside risks to the economic outlook have notably diminished.

Canada: BoC Remains Patient Amid Uncertainty

On June 10^th, the Bank of Canada (BoC) announced it would hold its policy rate steady at 2.25%. Given the widely expected decision, attention shifted to Governor Tiff Macklem's comments, which were broadly consistent with RBC Economics’ cautiously optimistic view that underlying economic conditions, particularly on a “per-person” basis, should continue to improve gradually.

Recent labour market data suggest tentative signs of stabilization, although conditions remain softer than historical norms. The unemployment rate has fluctuated between 6.5% and 6.9% this year, while slowing population growth may be causing aggregate economic indicators to understate the performance of the economy on a per-worker basis. Despite higher energy prices, consumer demand has held up reasonably well.

Taken together, these trends provide the BoC with flexibility to await more data on growth and inflation as policymakers evaluate the path forward for interest rates.

CUSMA: Review Process in Focus

A key assumption behind RBC Economics’ outlook for the Canadian economy is that the CUSMA framework remains largely intact. Although the U.S. has imposed sector-specific tariffs on certain Canadian goods, most Canadian exports enter the U.S. duty-free under the agreement, helping to cushion the economy from broader trade disruptions.

CUSMA’s first scheduled six-year review is set for July 1, at which point Canada, the U.S. and Mexico can agree to renew the pact for an additional 16-year term through 2042, potentially alongside negotiated revisions. Even absent an extension, the framework remains in force by default until 2036, with annual reviews serving as a mechanism for continued negotiations.

An extension would likely provide a modest boost to business confidence by reducing uncertainty that has weighed on investment and hiring decisions, especially if it included rollbacks of U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum and autos, which Canadian negotiators have reportedly made a priority. Meanwhile, the U.S. could push for changes in areas such as auto-content rules, dairy market access and restrictions on Chinese inputs.

A no-extension outcome by July 1 would leave lingering uncertainty, though practical implications are likely limited as the existing framework would remain operational. We believe investors should prepare for potentially challenging headlines as negotiations unfold, but we continue to view an outright withdrawal from CUSMA as unlikely given the deep integration of North American supply chains.

Summary

Despite an unsettled backdrop, corporate earnings and receding geopolitical risks have supported equity markets. Admittedly, headline risk from trade negotiations could create intermittent volatility, but our base case remains that the North American trade framework stays broadly intact.

We remain focused on diversification and quality companies with strong balance sheets, an approach we believe remains the best path forward while managing through the inevitable bouts of volatility that come with it.

#MacroMemo - Peace, productivity and continued growth

In this most recent episode of #MacroMemo, Eric Lascelles unpacks a number of important themes impacting the economic outlook: is the U.S.-Iran deal solid and what happens if things don't go as planned? Europe and Canada are flashing recession signals, but what's really happening below the surface? And how is AI productivity and consumer spending continue to fuel U.S. growth?

You can listen to this episode of the #MacroMemo by clicking here.

Summer Hours are in effect

A quick reminder that our offices are now observing Summer Hours until September 4th. During this time, our offices will be open as usual Monday to Thursday from 8:30am to 4:30pm, and on Fridays our offices will be closing at 4:00pm. Thank you for your understanding!

As always, we are available to connect with you personally. Please don’t hesitate to contact us at 519-822-2024 or elineskyschuett@rbc.com.