In this video Rachelle outlines three key developments shaping markets right now: the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, slowing global growth, and what corporate earnings may tell us next.

Geopolitical Breakthrough

After weeks of escalating tensions, the U.S. and Iran reached a temporary ceasefire. Tehran has agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping—a major development for energy markets.

Markets responded immediately. Equities recovered losses, oil prices pulled back, and bond yields declined. Lower energy costs should ease pressure on consumers and businesses, which helps moderate inflation concerns.

But here's the reality: this is "less bad," not "problem solved." The ceasefire buys time for negotiations, but a challenging second quarter is likely unavoidable for many economies and businesses.

Global Slowdown

Business surveys show growth has softened across major economies—particularly in consumer-facing sectors. Hiring has cooled and costs have risen due to higher energy prices.

In Canada, the picture is mixed. Manufacturing stalled and services contracted, but business confidence hit a six-month high. As a net energy exporter, Canada may actually see modest growth benefits.

Notably, corporate profit forecasts in the U.S. and Canada are still climbing—but mainly in energy and tech. Other sectors haven't caught up with the softer economic backdrop.

Earnings Matter Now

This brings us to earnings season. Management guidance will be critical. We need to hear whether current profit trends are sustainable and can support equity valuations.

Markets are in a "stress-testing" phase, but the ceasefire is encouraging. Stay balanced, stay focused on long-term targets, and expect continued volatility as negotiations unfold.

Thanks for tuning in and see you in two weeks.