"Markets in Balance: What You Need to Know"

"Despite ongoing uncertainty around the Middle East conflict, markets are holding their ground. We provide some context around the three factors supporting investor confidence—and what to watch."

First, the economy is resilient. Companies are posting strong earnings and healthy margins. Consumers are absorbing higher energy costs better than we expected, and our economy is simply less oil-dependent than it used to be.

Second, AI momentum is real. Tech giants are proving that heavy AI spending actually translates into earnings, not just higher costs. Semiconductor companies confirm that AI infrastructure demand remains robust.

Third, central banks have our back. The Fed and Bank of Canada are holding rates steady, giving them room to be patient as geopolitical risks evolve."

"But here's what worries us: we're calling this a 'tenuous' situation. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Strategic reserves and temporary workarounds are running down. The longer this drags on, the more strain builds beneath the surface. If buffers deplete, supply crunches could hit harder."

Markets have already priced in a quick resolution. That's the base case—but timing is everything. Stay diversified, keep a long-term lens, and watch for delays. That's when elevated energy prices could meaningfully weigh on activity.

Thanks for tuning in and see you in two weeks.