A few topics our newsletter touches on this month:

• Our Thoughts: Ceasefire & A Historic Splash Down
• Trusted Contact Person: Should you consider appointing one?
• By the numbers: March
• Arts in Ottawa corner: Artemis II steals the spotlight

Pictured (above): Mark, Sarah & Peter had the opportunity to catch the Sens game against Tampa this past week and got swept up in the “we want playoffs” fervour – Go Sens Go!

Our Thoughts: Ceasefire & A Splash Down

Geopolitics (particularly the Iran ceasefire) continue to dominate the narrative for financial markets and major economies. In addition, and perhaps as a welcome distraction – all eyes are on the Artemis II as it returns to Earth (set to land somewhere off the coast of San Diego) following a successful mission around the moon – more on that at the end of this newsletter.

Ceasefire leads market sentiment shift: After weeks of trading deadlines and escalating rhetoric, the U.S. and Iran reached a temporary ceasefire contingent on Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) to commercial shipping. The agreement has reduced the likelihood of worst-case economic outcomes stemming from a severe disruption to energy markets. Markets responded constructively: equities recovered a portion of recent losses, oil prices pulled back, and bond yields declined. Lower energy costs, if sustained, should ease pressure on consumers and businesses, moderating concerns around the inflation backdrop and earnings outlook.

Despite the collective sigh of relief, the prudent interpretation is likely “less bad” rather than “problem resolved.” The ceasefire provides time for both sides to find common ground and, ideally, a framework that lets each claim some version of a win. For many economies and businesses, a challenging second quarter may be largely unavoidable. What remains to be determined is whether that headwind gives way to a gradual normalization or renewed disruptions. Should the ceasefire hold and eventually become permanent, we believe the most likely outcome remains a period of slower growth and somewhat elevated inflation before conditions improve later in the year.

Global Economic Resilience Tested: The softening we observed two weeks ago has become more broadly visible. The latest business surveys suggest growth moderated across major economies, with the pressure most evident in consumer-facing areas. Globally, hiring trends have cooled and cost pressures have risen, reflecting the effects of higher energy prices.

In Canada, conditions are mixed. The manufacturing sector stalled and services activity contracted for a fifth consecutive month as consumers delayed spending decisions, but business confidence reached a six-month high on optimism around trade prospects and a potential resolution in the Iran conflict. Overall activity levels remain consistent with continued expansion, albeit at a slower pace than before the war.

Eyes On Corporate Guidance: Despite heightened uncertainty, corporate profit estimates in Canada and the U.S. have continued to move higher. However, upward revisions have been concentrated in the energy and technology sectors. Outside of these companies, revisions have been limited, suggesting analysts have yet to fully incorporate the softer economic backdrop.

Earnings forecasts can lag economic developments, which is why the upcoming corporate reporting season will likely carry more weight than usual. Management guidance on business conditions and consumer demand will provide valuable signals on whether the current trajectory in earnings is sustainable and whether it can provide fundamental support for equity markets.

Takeaway: The economy and markets remain in a “stress testing” phase, but the ceasefire represents an encouraging step toward stability. A key indicator we are monitoring is the normalization of shipping activity through the SoH, which would signal improving commodity supply constraints. While periods of rapid news cycles and sharp price swings in both directions can challenge investor confidence, these moments underscore the importance of maintaining a balanced perspective. We believe portfolio allocations should be closely aligned to long-term target weights, while acknowledging that markets may experience renewed bouts of volatility as U.S.-Iran negotiations unfold.

Should you have any questions, please feel free to reach out.

Trusted Contact Person:

For your protection, we strongly recommend having a trusted contact person on file. This is someone you trust, that we can contact to help if we have a concern or cannot reach you. Please call us if you would like to add or update your trusted contact. For more information please see attached.

By the numbers (March):

The TSX was down 4.32% while the S&P 500 was down 4.98% in U.S. dollars (down 3.1% in $CAD). The Europe, Australia & Far East index (EAFE) was down 8.1%, while the Emerging Markets index was down 11.01%. The Canadian bond market was down 1.97%.

Interesting Listening/Reading:

• Disruptors - A dynamic <30 min RBC podcast hosted by John Stackhouse about reimagining Canada’s economy in a time of unprecedented change.
• • Tech Wins Gold: How Canada Can Rebuild Its Olympic Pipeline
  • Trust at Scale: Lessons From Wikipedia
  • REBOOT: Building Canada: A new generation takes charge
• To check out our RBC GAM’s Global Investment Outlook for Spring 2026, find the link here.

“Arts in Ottawa” Corner: Artemis II steals the spotlight

A bit of a cheat this month but even the National Arts Centre got in on the excitement as the live broadcast of the Artemis II lunar mission launch which included Canadian astronaut Jeremy Hansen was broadcast onto the NAC’s Kipnes Lantern LED screens. The Ottawa citizen has more photos of the event here, and on NASA’s website you can track live updates on the mission as the crew finishes their journey back to Earth (including breathtaking photos of the moon during their flyby).

They are set to land at approximately 8:07 PM EDT today (April 8^th).

Peter’s son Xavier (age 5) also highly recommends a trip to the Canadian Space & Aviation Museum, there is a spotlight exhibit all about the lunar mission and Jeremy Hansen’s story and a “become an astronaut” interactive activity that is well worth the trip. Details on their site.

Regards,

Mark, Peter, Sarah, Corinne & Nathalie

Gallivan Wealth Management of RBC Dominion Securities

Mark Gallivan, CPA, CA, CFP

Senior Portfolio Manager & Wealth Advisor
mark.gallivan@rbc.com
Phone: 613-721-6033

Peter Gallivan, CFP, CIM

Associate Wealth Advisor & Financial Planner
peter.gallivan@rbc.com
Phone: 613-725-3319

Sarah Bertrand, CPA, CA, CIM, CFP

Associate Portfolio Manager
sarah.bertrand@rbc.com
Phone: 613-733-7323

Corinne Farndale

Senior Associate
corinne.farndale@rbc.com
Phone: 613-721-8928

Nathalie Da Costa

Associate
nathalie.dacosta@rbc.com
Phone: 613-721-7441

RBC Dominion Securities Inc.