When markets are volatile and headlines are dominated by conflict and rising oil prices, it’s natural to feel anxious about your portfolio. During periods of uncertainty, history offers us a powerful reminder: short-term market pullbacks are normal, temporary, and often forgotten in the context of long-term wealth building. As we navigate this evolving geopolitical landscape, we wanted to share some perspective on current market conditions and reassure you of our approach to protecting your wealth. 

Historical Perspective: Market Pullbacks Are Par for the Course

In the latest Global Insight Weekly we examine 20 major military conflicts and geopolitical events since World War II and notice a compelling pattern emerges. While the S&P 500 declined an average of 6% from initial impact to the market trough, it recovered to pre-conflict levels in just 28 days on average in 19 of those 20 events - regardless of how long the conflicts themselves lasted. This data underscores a critical principle: the duration of a conflict has historically had little bearing on market performance. The market eventually recovers.

Even more reassuring: market pullbacks of 10% or more occur in more than half of all years. These are temporary disruptions, not permanent damage. Moreover, the S&P 500 has ended the vast majority of years positively, despite interim volatility.

Please read the full March Global Insight report for a detailed analysis of geopolitical risks, crude oil impacts, and market prospects.

Planning for What's Ahead

Market turbulence is uncomfortable, but it is also temporary. Your long-term financial plan was designed with volatility in mind.  The most costly mistake investors make during uncertain times is abandoning their strategy by pulling investments to "wait it out". Historically this locks in losses and causes investors to miss the best recovery days. Research shows that missing just the 10 best market days can significantly diminish long-term returns. 

We recommend maintaining your strategic allocation and focusing on the economic fundamentals that support long-term growth. However, we are also mindful that geopolitical risks remain fluid and unpredictable which is why we expect and plan for market volatility while building your portfolio.

We're Here for You

If you have concerns about your portfolio or would like to review your investment strategy, please don't hesitate to reach out.

Best regards,

Hayes Vickers Private Wealth