GROUNDHOG DAY. AGAIN.

Fear & Greed

Every morning when I get up, I read the news from overnight, look at the market futures – and look at the Fear & Greed Index.

Measured out of 100, on January 28^th it was at 66: Greed. 

As of March 13^th, it was at 21: Extreme Fear.

How should we be interpreting this information?  We are guided by one of Warren Buffet’s most famous maxims:

“Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”

Therefore, we are watching very carefully for companies we believe are priced below their intrinsic value, and which meet the stringent criteria of our investment philosophy (see below, at the War subheading, for details).

Why is there so much fear in the market?  The military conflict in the Middle East, and the upward pressure it is putting on oil prices, are primary driving forces.

Inflationary pressure is being created especially by the risk to the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow shipping lane through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes.  Of note to our clients, this is also setting the table for a rise in the valuations of some companies in the energy and industrial sectors. 

We have been prepared for this kind of situation for some time, because last year we added to the energy holdings in our portfolios by buying companies including Rockpoint, South Bow and Canadian Natural Resources.  In addition to adding carefully selected energy companies, we also added industrial businesses including Honeywell and MDA, which give us exposure to defence.

These new positions increase our exposure to energy and industrial and defence companies, and at the same time make our portfolios more defensive.  These have proven to be constructive moves for our clients.

BUT:
Canada’s ability to fully capitalize on rising oil prices is constrained by limited pipeline capacity, which restrains how quickly exports can increase.

Pipeline capacity is a crucial national challenge.  Demonstrating the push-pull that exists in this country, two contrasting stories appeared in the news within 24 hours of each other last week:

Ottawa and Alberta reach prospective deal to streamline

major project approvals

CNRL says it will delay $8-billion mine expansion until carbon pricing rules are clear

Can Canada get its act straight, and start to fulfill its destiny as one of the world’s richest countries?  We shall see.  See my thoughts in the December, 2025 issue of Marche Monthly, here, under the heading:  A Big Step Forward?

CONSUMERS PAY TARIFFS

As we have said before in this blog, consumers pay tariffs.  This is because importers simply pass on the cost to their customers.

The Trump administration does not share our view.  Yet we have rising inflation in the United States.  It has taken a while for inflation to appear, because companies did the logical thing in advance of tariffs:  stock up on inventory at pre-tariff prices. 

We also have a study from the Kiel Institute, considered by organizations that measure media bias to be among the least-biased research bodies.  It concludes that consumers in the United States are bearing 96% of the tariff burden.

The Kiel Institute sums it up this way:

--

“Tariffs do not transfer wealth from foreigners to Americans. They transfer wealth from American consumers to the US Treasury.”

--

And now we have a statement from the CEO of one of America’s most respected companies, Costco, in which he says that the refund Costco receives from the federal government, as a result of the US Supreme Court striking down many of Trump’s tariffs, will be passed along directly to customers in the form of lower prices.

RAISE INTEREST RATES?

Despite rising inflation due to tariffs and oil prices, we do not support the idea of either the Bank of Canada or the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates. Tariff-driven inflation comes from higher costs caused by trade policies, and higher interest rates cannot reduce those costs – or energy price pressures.  Raising rates would risk slowing economic growth without addressing the underlying causes of the price increases.

WAR

War creates incredible human suffering.  As citizens, we pray for the people affected and hope for a quick end to the hostilities.  As investors, we must always be prepared for the disruption caused by war, a responsibility we take very seriously and which we have delivered upon in recent years, as in the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the volatility it created in the markets.

The fact is this:  our portfolios will do well no matter what is happening in the world – as long as we continue to strictly follow our equity philosophy.  We tend to manage concentrated portfolios composed of quality businesses we want to own for many years. We believe this approach will maximize long-term performance, improve after-tax returns and keep costs to a minimum.  We focus on owning companies which:

• Have a track record of creating shareholder value
• Have management that treats shareholders as partners
• Are trading below intrinsic value
• Have a simple, easy to understand business model

Another key message: stay invested.  History provides valuable perspective.  While geopolitical shocks often generate short-term market volatility, they have had limited influence on the longer-term direction of the market. Across roughly two dozen significant military conflicts since 1950, the S&P 500 – which we consider to be the authoritative indicator of how the markets are doing – delivered positive returns twelve months later nearly three-quarters of the time.

LOOKING AHEAD

I want to emphasize that our portfolios have performed well in an environment of geopolitical and market volatility because our models do not own the market, but have focused on owning a select concentration of companies, selected according to the criteria in the section just above.

TAX SEASON DATES

RRSP season, so important because of the power of tax-sheltered compound growth, ended March 2nd. Tax season continues, and we are working as always with our clients and their accountants.  Key dates include:

-April 30, 2026: last day to file your 2025 tax return without penalty.
-June 15, 2026: last day to file your 2025 tax return without penalty if you are self-employed.

For our 2026 list of handy financial planning facts, click here.

I always welcome you – and your family, friends and colleagues – to contact me with any questions or concerns.  Because it is, after all…

…THAT TIME, *AGAIN*

February 2^nd – Groundhog Day – has come and gone, and every year at this time, we get calls from our clients’ family, friends and colleagues with their concerns that they are not doing as well financially as they could be.

They are assessing their investment returns.  On top of that, they are in the middle of tax time, and many of them are facing the hard reality that when it comes to investing, it’s what you keep after tax that really matters. And so they are asking themselves: “Can I do better?”

Very often, as we tell many new clients, the answer is “yes.”

Do you know someone who should be talking to us?  We would be happy to hear from you, or someone you care about, and as always will provide a complimentary analysis of the situation, with absolutely no cost or obligation.  We are here, as always.

--

We don’t speak jargon.  We’re all about uncomplicating your life, so we speak plain English.  If there is someone you care about – someone who would appreciate this simple and straightforward approach – please feel free to share this message with them or put us in touch.

Want to discuss any aspect of this month’s blog, or any other issue on your mind?  Have a story idea?  I am always happy to receive your call or email.

Tyler Marche, MBA, CFP, FCSI

Your life, uncomplicated

tyler.marche@rbc.com

1-416-974-4810

www.tylermarche.com