Economics and Market Updates

The first half of 2026 tested investor resolve on multiple fronts. A Middle East conflict, persistent tariff uncertainty, and a technical recession in Canada all made headlines. And yet North American equity markets finished the period solidly in positive territory — a reminder that portfolios are built to withstand exactly this kind of environment.

Geopolitics

The outbreak of conflict in the Middle East in late February was the dominant market event of the half. Energy was the standout sector: the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted roughly 20% of global oil flows, pushing prices higher and lifting energy equities. RBC Capital Markets noted that geopolitical uncertainty of this kind tends to compress price-to-earnings multiples, which explains why the broader market felt more turbulent than the year-to-date return numbers suggest. Bond markets were similarly unsettled, with investors weighing whether elevated energy costs could keep inflation above target. The June MOU between the U.S. and Iran has since improved sentiment on both fronts, though as our feature commentary below notes, important questions remain.

Trade

On the trade front, the picture is more manageable than the headlines have implied. RBC Economics confirms that the vast majority of Canadian exports continue to flow to the U.S. under CUSMA exemption. The July CUSMA review, which has attracted considerable attention, is focused solely on whether to extend the agreement's expiry date from 2026 to 2036. Current tariff rates are not on the table either way.

Off-Piste and Onto the Court and Links

Theo capped off the ski season with a redeye weekend in Banff before trading his skis for serves, getting back on the tennis court after a long hiatus. He also competed in The Big Dill pickleball tournament to fundraise for his alma mater — a "lifer" there from Pre-K to Grade 11!

Off-Piste and Onto the Court and Links

Theo capped off the ski season with a redeye weekend in Banff before trading his skis for serves, getting back on the tennis court after a long hiatus. He also competed in The Big Dill pickleball tournament to fundraise for his alma mater — a "lifer" there from Pre-K to Grade 11!