The classic song is about life cycles, beginnings and endings. At this point on the market, there are some powerful cycles that are driving capital flows and this month, we are going to examine the market’s most recent upturns, downturns and U-turns to determine how they will impact our investment decisions.

The current wars in Ukraine and Iran are having a profound effect on the global political and economic landscape. After failed negotiations over the weekend, the US is moving forward by further blocking the Strait of Hormuz. With spring coming, we expect Russia to again push forward with renewed attacks on Ukraine. The consequences of both these military actions have both short-term and longer-term implications. This month, we will go into our overview of the current global status and discuss how we are navigating through it.

It has been a difficult winter on a number of fronts. Record cold temperatures kept us indoors. Changing politics kept us off guard and the market has been moody at best, one day up then one day down regardless of good or bad news. There are a lot of topics that need discussion so we will review the broader markets, and we will see where we can avoid the cold and find some sunshine.

The current gold rush in the investing world is the battle to win the artificial intelligence race. The pot of gold for the eventual winner(s) is beyond calculation.

Fall is upon us, to the delight of nature lovers and North American sports fans. You can enjoy a drive to see the fall colours and watch baseball, basketball, football and hockey in the same weekend. It is also the time of our favourite season of all: third quarter US earnings season.

Cat Stevens’ emotional ballad is about lost love, but one thing remains true as it relates to the stock market: investors love interest rate cuts. So why is the first cut important? One interest rate cut does not make a trend as it is only a simple data point. However, if more interest rate cuts happen, a trend begins, and the market gains momentum. This month, we will focus on North American interest rates and their projected impact on both the market and the economy.

If you have viewed social media, this has happened to you: you read an article on a topic of interest, and it raises a concern. An hour and 20 articles later, your level of concern has grown as you find several different opinions on the same topic. This is known as doomscrolling, and if you’re not careful, it can negatively influence how you process information and make decisions, particularly around investing. Our goal with this article is to help people move from being readers to researchers and separate facts from opinions.

The US Administration’s budget bill has just passed the House of Representatives and is now ready to be signed into law. The budget proposes continuing previous tax cuts and increasing spending on the military, border security and energy. However, this will lead to a budget deficit of approximately $3.3 trillion. This problematic budget, combined with Israel’s attack on Iran, has created increased political uncertainty, and is a worry for markets. This month, we will explore these issues and discuss our strategies to navigate potentially choppy waters.

The classic market saying is that stock prices take an elevator down and an escalator back up. April’s stock market action was a classic example. Up until April 9th, when the US government announced a 90 day pause on tariffs, the major US stock indexes dropped between 7 to 10%. Since then, all three major US markets have recovered most of that loss, with the NASDAQ actually showing a gain for the month. This month, we will review current economic conditions in search of potential volatility elevators, and where the growth escalators are located.

When we normally talk about March Madness, we are referring to the annual NCAA Basketball Tournaments. This year, the broad and sweeping changes of the Trump administration are the main topic of conversation both in Canada and around the world, particularly when it comes to tariffs. Given the level of concern about their possible impact, we will address the challenges posed by tariffs and the current US administration in general and discuss how we are positioning our portfolios to best defend against further unexpected developments.

After a strong year in 2024, our thoughts now turn to the year ahead. The number one fact that very few predicted would actually come to pass was the US placing a 25% tariff on Canadian goods and 10% on oil and gas. We see the President using tariffs to bully the rest of the world to better trade terms and concessions. It is interesting to note he has done all this via executive order, rather than going through the House and Senate. It is doubtful he would receive enough support if this issue was put to a broader vote.

Whether it's earnings, news, rumors or regular daily activity, every stock is reacting to its own forces and in relation to the overall direction of the market. How any of those data points are perceived depends on the intentions of the observer. Each side of every trade believes they're making a good decision—and both can be right. The ultimate goal is to be able to interpret the most important data points and correctly measure how it will affect our portfolio.

With investing, it is often difficult to know which star to follow as the investment horizon is ever changing, and never totally clear. In recent months, market focus has shifted among inflation, interest rates, corporate earnings, and even politics. All these items can have a profound effect on markets that must be carefully navigated. This month, we will review these points to determine the best investment path forward.

On August 5, we saw a large sell off in US equities after a 12% decline in Japan’s Nikkei stock index, all triggered by a rise in the yen after the Bank of Japan increased their interest rate from 0.1% to 0.25%. How does a 0.15% Japanese rate increase send the US market into a tailspin? This month, we will dig into what happened in the Japanese market and explore some further data points that bear watching moving forward.

With inflation now heading towards the US Federal Reserve’s target of 2% and international rates moving lower even faster, the question that presents itself is: are we finally at the beginning of an interest rate trend towards a normalized economy or will inflation again rear its ugly head as interest rate pressures are eased on consumers? This month, we will explore that question and the implications for markets moving forward.

After U.S. inflation increased slightly at the end of March to 3.5%, we've seen the market have impatient sell offs in April as the number of projected rate cuts has dropped. What is seemingly being ignored at the moment is the ongoing strength of the U.S. economy and the productivity gains being made. This month, we will examine Secretary Yellen’s comments and consider their implications for both the U.S. economy and the stock market.

In the children’s story The Little Engine That Could, a small train climbs a large hill because it believes in itself. Based on population, the US represents only 4.23% of the world, yet it has become the economic engine that pulls the world’s markets behind it. This month, we will review some of the key US economic metrics to attempt to gauge the extent of their economic dominance and its effect on the rest of the world.

In the investment world, popular opinion definitely drives the market, but it is independent thought and willingness to consider all factors that lead to better decision making and results. This month, we will consider the recent dramatic swing in market direction with an objective eye to determine what warning signs are on our investment road to investment success in 2024.