Cyber Security and Scams

We cannot overemphasize the importance of being wary of any opportunity that is presented to you or advertised through social media, websites, email, text message or phone call. Everyone is a target, and anyone can be caught in a moment where they may be occupied with other thoughts or activities, which can result in them becoming a victim.

Artificial Intelligence has allowed criminals to make very legitimate looking websites, videos and articles to trick individuals into believing that an opportunity is real. Many of these scams use fake branding from organizations like the CBC or individuals like Mark Carney and Kevin O’Leary to make the opportunity look like it is endorsed by reputable people or organizations. Scammers can use AI to create Deepfake’s of public figures to trick people into thinking that they are promoting or endorsing the scams.

Here is an exclusive webinar featuring RBC’s Chief Information Security Officer, Adam Evans and Head of Business Operating Solutions & Effectiveness, Shannon Grosso, who will discuss how RBC is safeguarding your information and what you can do to protect yourself. The link below is a 45-minute conversation that was recorded in November 2025. It provides an excellent overview of how criminals utilize data and online infrastructure to conduct scams.

Navigating the cyber universe

Below is a link to some Scam Alerts that RBC has published on their website. Please take some time to familiarize yourself with the details of the scams and what you should know to protect yourself.

Scam Alerts

Please feel free to reach out to our team if you ever encounter something that you are unfamiliar with. We have lots of knowledge and resources that can help to determine the legitimacy of the information. We also have additional material on the steps you should take if you have been scammed and how to identify Deepfake Scams that we would be happy to provide to you.

Market Update

Geopolitics continue to dominate the narrative for financial markets and major economies. We discuss what’s transpired, macro developments, and earnings expectations in more detail below.

Geopolitical Headline Whipsaw

After weeks of trading deadlines and escalating rhetoric, the U.S. and Iran reached a temporary ceasefire contingent on Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) to commercial shipping. The agreement has reduced the likelihood of worst-case economic outcomes stemming from a severe disruption to energy markets. Markets responded constructively: equities recovered a portion of recent losses, oil prices pulled back, and bond yields declined. Lower energy costs, if sustained, should ease pressure on consumers and businesses, moderating concerns around the inflation backdrop and earnings outlook.

Despite the collective sigh of relief, the prudent interpretation is likely “less bad” rather than “problem resolved.” The ceasefire provides time for both sides to find common ground and, ideally, a framework that lets each claim some version of a win. For many economies and businesses, a challenging second quarter may be largely unavoidable. What remains to be determined is whether that headwind gives way to a gradual normalization or renewed disruptions. Should the ceasefire hold and eventually become permanent, we believe the most likely outcome remains a period of slower growth and somewhat elevated inflation before conditions improve later in the year.

Global Economic Resilience Tested

The softening we observed two weeks ago has become more broadly visible. The latest business surveys suggest growth moderated across major economies, with the pressure most evident in consumer-facing areas. Globally, hiring trends have cooled and cost pressures have risen, reflecting the effects of higher energy prices.

In Canada, conditions are mixed. The manufacturing sector stalled and services activity contracted for a fifth consecutive month as consumers delayed spending decisions, but business confidence reached a six-month high on optimism around trade prospects and a potential resolution in the Iran conflict. Overall activity levels remain consistent with continued expansion, albeit at a slower pace than before the war.

In estimates published before the ceasefire, RBC Global Asset Management’s forecasts aligned with the direction now visible in the data. They estimated that a sustained energy price shock could lift inflation by roughly one percentage point in North America, and by more in Europe and Japan. Growth impacts vary by region, with Europe and Japan again bearing the brunt of a slowdown, while Canada’s position as a net energy exporter could translate into a modest boost to growth.

Eyes On Corporate Guidance

Despite heightened uncertainty, corporate profit estimates in Canada and the U.S. have continued to move higher. However, upward revisions have been concentrated in the energy and technology sectors. Outside of these companies, revisions have been limited, suggesting analysts have yet to fully incorporate the softer economic backdrop.

Earnings forecasts can lag economic developments, which is why the upcoming corporate reporting season will likely carry more weight than usual. Management guidance on business conditions and consumer demand will provide valuable signals on whether the current trajectory in earnings is sustainable and whether it can provide fundamental support for equity markets.

Takeaway

The economy and markets remain in a “stress testing” phase, but the ceasefire represents an encouraging step toward stability. A key indicator we are monitoring is the normalization of shipping activity through the SoH, which would signal improving commodity supply constraints. While periods of rapid news cycles and sharp price swings in both directions can challenge investor confidence, these moments underscore the importance of maintaining a balanced perspective. We believe portfolio allocations should be closely aligned to long-term target weights, while acknowledging that markets may experience renewed bouts of volatility as U.S.-Iran negotiations unfold.

Should you have any questions, please feel free to reach out.