Menard Kinkaid Private Wealth Fall Market Commentary 2025

As we approach year-end, I wanted to share an update on your portfolio and highlight the relatively strong performance we’ve seen through the fall.

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Menard Kinkaid Private Wealth

November 27, 2025

As we approach year-end, I wanted to share an update on your portfolio and highlight the relatively strong performance we’ve seen through the fall. With Q3 earnings season now behind us, corporate results have been broadly upbeat. Despite a steady stream of negative headlines this year, we’re reminded that rising corporate earnings ultimately support equity valuations. Both Canadian and U.S. companies delivered earnings above long-term averages, underscoring the resilience of corporate profitability leading to strength in your portfolio.  

 One theme that continues to make headlines is the comparison between today’s AI-driven technology cycle and past “tech bubbles.” While some pockets of the market do look stretched, the broader AI opportunity is grounded in real earnings power, productivity improvements, and long-term business adoption rather than hype alone. In your portfolio, we remain disciplined in our focus on established companies with strong balance sheets, proven demand and valuations that still reflect reasonable long-term growth. This year, we continued to diversify your technology exposure across the full ecosystem - from semiconductor manufacturing to the “intelligence” behind large language models, robotics and automation.

 Most AI spending today is happening in infrastructure: data centers, semiconductors, and cloud capacity. A common question is whether real-world applications will scale quickly enough to justify this investment. We believe they will - businesses across nearly every industry are already deploying AI to enhance productivity and profitability.

 On the domestic front, the federal government released its first budget under Prime Minister Mark Carney. Against a backdrop of global trade tension, geopolitical uncertainty, and persistent affordability and productivity challenges, the 2025 Budget delivered on a key campaign objective: combining substantive investment with fiscal discipline. The plan includes expansionary spending in infrastructure, defense, housing and industries affected by tariffs.

 The fiscal path is front-loaded, projecting a $78-billion deficit this year and gradually declining deficits through 2029–30. These capital-focused measures will influence Canada’s economic landscape through 2026. Notably, the emphasis on infrastructure should benefit several companies you hold, including Toromont (earth-moving equipment), WSP Global (engineering), and Brookfield (infrastructure investment).