This week’s report highlights a growing challenge for the U.S. economy: supplying enough electricity to support AI, data centers, and manufacturing.
Projections from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) show a 1.3% annual growth rate in power demand through 2050, more than double the 0.6% seen over the past 20 years.
Total electrical consumption is projected to rise roughly 45% by 2050, while more than 70% of transmission lines and large transformers are already over 25 years old. For investors, this creates long-term opportunities in power generation, electrical equipment, and grid upgrades, although delays could slow growth for companies waiting for power.
In Canada, economic growth is cooling, but consumer spending and employment remain resilient. Housing affordability is improving slowly, however tariff-related uncertainty and financial tightening from rising bond yields represent meaningful downside risks.
A few other highlights:
- The AI story has been formidable growth driver in South Korea. The country is projecting record national tax revenue of US$353 billion - a 28% increase from the previous year driven primarily by robust profits from the semiconductor and AI spaces.
- This historic windfall is fueling ambitious investment plans, with the government proposing a record 12.8% increase in spending for next year directed toward AI infrastructure, chip development, and programs to boost growth.
- Global markets face different pressures: Europe is dealing with high energy costs, inflation, and strained government budgets. India faces crop disruptions, rising food prices and a weaker currency, supporting a cautious approach to those markets.
- The Iran war has driven up energy costs, fueling inflation across Europe and straining government budgets. France and the UK both face difficult deficit reduction challenges—France must cut spending on pensions and welfare to meet EU rules, while the UK's fiscal flexibility is tightening as interest rates rise.
- Both France and the UK are introducing targeted initiatives to address economic headwinds. The UK is launching a loan scheme to boost first-time homebuyers and new construction, while considering longer-term pension reforms to control spending growth and improve fiscal sustainability.
Please click here to access this week’s Global Insight Weekly where I have highlighted what I consider interesting/important takeaways.