Full report: Global Insight

This month’s highlights:

Midterms, the market, and what matters

The U.S. midterm election in November is shaping up to be a referendum on Trump 2.0. Independent voters and views on the economy could tip the scales. We examine historical equity market performance surrounding midterm elections, and what this might—or might not—be suggesting for this year and next.

Global equity: Was that all there is?

The outlook for equity markets, already faced with the historical challenges of a midterm election year, is now additionally dependent on how soon the Strait of Hormuz can reopen.

Global fixed income: Central banks have seen enough

After biding their time, we now see some major global central banks pivoting to rate hikes in the months ahead.

U.S. Recession Scorecard: A more constructive picture

After years of slowly edging toward a recessionary red complexion, the Scorecard looks to have reversed course and is slowly shifting toward expansionary green, a positive for the equities outlook.